Predictions 27 Sept

Posting after the fact, but these were the bets I made:

Lay Brighton *3 (backer's stake)
Lay Reading *2.5
Lay Blackpool *3
Lay Derby *2.5
Lay Hull *1.5

The Reading lay lost (right at the death), but the rest won. +5 today.

Predictions 24 Sept 2011

Lay Arsenal *5 (backer's stake)
Lay Chelsea *14
Lay Liverpool *5
Lay Man City *6
Lay Man Utd *8
Lay Tottenham *4

[Edit] Results: only the Man Utd bet won. Total -7: not good.

Predictions 18 Sept 2011

Value bets today:

Fulham v Man City - Fulham or draw [Edit: bet wins]
Man Utd v Chelsea - Chelsea or draw [Edit: bet loses]
Southampton v Birmingham - Birmingham or draw [Edit: bet loses]
Hannover v Dortmund - Hannover or draw [Edit: bet wins]
Schalke v Bayern Munich - Schalke or draw [Edit: bet loses]

[Edit] Only two out of five correct, but because of differing stake sizes, I made a small profit.

Predictions for 13 September 2011

Some League Two predictions:

Macclesfield v Morecambe: Home or draw [Edit: Result - draw]
Hereford v Aldershot: Home or draw [Edit: Result - away win]
Crawley v Swindon: Away or draw [Edit: Result - away win]
Barnet v Plymouth: Away or draw [Edit: Result - home win]

[Edit] Two bets won and two lost. For me, a small loss.

Predictions 11 September 2011

Koln v Nurnburg: Lay Koln.
Wolfsburg v Schalke: No bets.

[Edit] Result: Nurnburg; bet wins. For me this recouped about half of the losses from yesterday. Still cash negative overall.

Predictions 10 September 2011

Today I am laying the home team in each of the six Bundesliga matches.

[11 September] Four home wins out of six. Cash negative. I suspect the unusual run of away wins in August 2010 has skewed the training data. Again, I find myself wondering how much training data is the "right" amount to use.