Tips 13 Dec 2011

Genoa *4

[Edit] Lost; -4. These Serie A bets are going badly.

Tips 12 Dec 2011

Roma *4

[Edit] Lost: -4

Tips 11 Dec 2011

Espanyol * 5
Zaragoza * 2
Bologna * 6 (?!)
Cagliari * 3

[Edit] Espanyol won, the rest lost. -3

Tips 10 December 2011

Back Siena *4

[Edit] Lost. -4

Tip, 27 Nov 2011

Serie A: Cesena v Genoa - back Cesena *3.

(First tip under the new system, it's quite exciting)

[Edit] Result - win! +5

Filtering

Now I'm filtering aggressively, on both team statistics (e.g. only consider games where the away team has a very low average number of corners won per game) and on odds (e.g. only consider games where the odds for the home team are greater than 5.0).

This means I will be placing far fewer bets. My tip for Saturday is: place no bets.

September 2011 Analysis

My total for September 2011 is -22. The Championship was profitable for me, but Prem, League Two and Bundesliga all made a loss.

There were at least three bugs in my program. It looks like one of these skewed the results of my analysis of previous seasons, making some leagues look more profitable than they really were. In particular League Two seemed to be profitable in previous seasons, but actually made me a large loss this season. The second was an inaccuracy in estimating lay prices from back prices, again causing me to overestimate profit predictions. The third bug was a difference between the analysis of previous seasons and predictions for the current season, meaning that I made a few bets that I shouldn't have made according to my own model, which lost.

Having fixed these bugs, I need to rerun all my analyses of previous seasons. At the same time I'm going to test some more subtle strategies for picking games and for betting.